Is the Global Sulphur Cap Expected to Eliminate the Use of Heavy Fuel Oil as Marine Fuel in the Arctic?

Although there have been some questions about the effect of the global sulphur cap on the need to phase out the use of HFO in the Arctic, one of the central findings of a fuel availability study that was commissioned by the International Maritime Organization is that a sufficient supply of compliant fuel can be produced in 2020 using heavy fuel (residual) blends. In addition, in order to comply with the global sulphur cap, shipping companies can choose to install scrubbers, which are a diverse group of air pollution control devices used to reduce sulphur emissions. The primary reason a shipping company would choose to install scrubbers would be to allow the company to continue burning cheaper HFO. Given this information, we anticipate that HFO will continue to be used by ships operating in the Arctic without action by the IMO to phase out the use of HFO in the Arctic.