When is Shipping in the Arctic Expected to Increase?

Studies estimate that overall shipping activity in the Arctic will increase by more than 50% between 2012 and 2050. This increase in shipping means that although shipping currently only accounts for about 5% of black carbon emissions in the Arctic, this number is expected to double by 2030 and quadruple by 2050 given current projections.[1] At the same time, the risks of an HFO spill will increase as a greater number of ships transit the Arctic for commercial or recreational purposes.

Specific instances of increased traffic include a recent announcement by the Chinese cargo-shipping company COSCO to send five ships through the Northern Sea Route in 2016. This is the largest number of COSCO ships that have ever transited the Northern Sea Route and after the company’s success during the 2016 Arctic-shipping season, it remains optimistic about the future of Arctic shipping.[2] South Korea has also recently used the Northern Sea Route to transport goods to Europe and South Korea’s Director of Shipping and Logistics at the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries has stated that South Korea will “prepare for the coming era of the Northern Sea Route by training manpower to specialize in Arctic shipping, offering incentives to shipping lines, and strengthening co-operation with states along the route.”[3]

In addition to increases in cargo traffic, there have also been several new developments in regards to recreational shipping in the Arctic. In particular, during the summer of 2016, the Crystal Serenity made history as the first luxury cruise liner to sail through the remote Northwest Passage. Furthermore, Sven-Olof Lindblad, founder and CEO of Lindblad Expeditions, announced that there will be ten new expedition ships delivered for use in Arctic waters by 2019.[4] Sven-Olof Lindblad also estimates that tourists will be coming the Arctic “in a big wave.”[5]

Finally, it is important to note that hydrocarbon extraction projects in the Arctic are the main driver for increased shipping traffic along the Northern Sea Route. For example, in 2015, a total of 5.4 million tons of goods and project cargo were transported through the Northern Sea Route, which was up from about 4.0 million tons in 2014 and 3.9 million tons in 2013.[6] This increase in traffic was due in large part to construction of the Yamal liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant, which is located deep in the Russian Arctic.[7] This type of shipping traffic is only expected to increase in the coming years with additional development of Russian hydrocarbon projects.

[1] Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), Summary for Policy-Makers: Arctic Climate Issues 2015, Short-lived Climate Pollutants, at 7 (2015).

[2] Atle Staalesen, COSCO sends five vessels through Northern Sea Route, The Barents Observer (October 10, 2016), available at: http://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic-industry-and-energy/2016/10/cosco-sends-five-vessels-through-northern-sea-route

[3] Xiaolin Zeng, More South Korean shipping lines eye Northern Sea Route, HIS Fairplay (July 19, 2016), available at: http://fairplay.ihs.com/commerce/article/4271961/more-south-korean-shipping-lines-eye-northern-sea-route

[4] Thomas Nilsen, Be prepared, mass tourism is coming like lemmings, The Independent Barents Observer (October 8, 2016), available at: http://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2016/10/be-prepared-mass-tourism-coming-lemmings

[5] Thomas Nilsen, Be prepared, mass tourism is coming like lemmings, The Independent Barents Observer (October 8, 2016), available at: http://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2016/10/be-prepared-mass-tourism-coming-lemmings

[6] Bjørn Gunnarsson, Further Development of the Northern Sea Route, The Maritime Executive (February 18, 2016), available at:http://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/future-development-of-the-northern-sea-route

[7] Bjørn Gunnarsson, Further Development of the Northern Sea Route, The Maritime Executive (February 18, 2016),a vailable at: http://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/future-development-of-the-northern-sea-route